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Saturday, 8 July 2023

Increased market interest rate impact on value

People generally hold investments in bonds and other securities  and thereby they normally receive fixed amount of interest as income, but as we all know market is dynamic there are multiple factors which alters the market interest rates and this will result in change in our value of investments held.
Say I am holding 10% debentures of nominal value usd100,000 having 5 years maturity, this simply means  I have put my usd100,000 capital on debentures, thereby I will be receiving interest as income of  usd10,000 annually (100000*.10).

But say market conditions changes and now the market rate of interest on such debentures is 15%, this simply means if anybody invests in debentures currently  under changed market interest rate he will be getting 15% interest as income annually (i.e usd15,000 annually), but since I have already invested @10% , I will be getting usd10,000 only. This simply means my investment value has decreased. My current value of investment is not usd100,000 rather it is usd66,666 (10000/.15). In other words the amount of income in the form of interest I am receiving i.e usd10,000 would have been received at principal amount of usd66,666 under current scenarios (i.e usd66,666*.15=10,000).  The amount of income I am receiving i.e usd10,000 can be possible by investing usd66,666 under current market scenarios(i.e at 15% rate of interest). In other words if somebody wants to receive usd 10,000 anually he need to invest only usd 66,666 and not 100,000 under changed interest rate. This denotes the value of my original investment of usd100,000 is usd66,666 only, i.e decrease of usd33334 due to increased market interest rate. (From 10% to 15%). Now what I am willing to do is to sell my existing debentures carrying 10% interest rate and buy new 15% debentures , but I will not get usd 100,000 from the buyer of my 10% debentures  rather I can only get usd 66,666 since now the value has decreased.

Since I have already mentioned market is dynamic , so there is always risk of value being deteriorated, so what one can do is to use means to avoid this risk through different techniques, and there are numerous techniques available such as forward and futures contract.

The question might arise in mind, does increased interest rates affects stock prices? The answer is yes. The reason is, due to increased borrowing rates corporation postpones it's lendings and thereby less spendings and this halts company's growth and which result in decrease in stock prices

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